Electronic Bills are Evil

I hate the move towards electronic records.  I get it. Save paper right? Save postage costs right? So everything in electronic form is good? And somebody decided to do automatic opt-in. Seems like a smart thing to do. Environmentally friendly and all that.

The thing is, when there is a printed copy mailed to me, I read. But when it's electronic, all I get is an e-mail notification. Then I have to go login, multi-factor authentication, clicking a whole bunch of menus, before I get to the electronic record. So I don't bother.

So recently, I finally realised that I have not been receiving my monthly credit bills because the records have gone electronic. And to my disgust, I realised that I was charged an annual fee without me realising.

Shitz. Shoot me. WTF.

An Ubery Experience - 3's a Crowd, and High End Uber

I've pretty much stopped taking the conventional taxis these days. Grouchy drivers, strange driving habits, uncertainty of flagging down any when I most need, smoky oxygen-deprived cab, #hotlikefxxxbutairconcantgetanycolder - just too many downsides to name. Nothing personal against honest drivers making a living. But really, I don't owe them a living. So if there is a cheaper and (to me anyway) a better alternative, I'm just going to switch camp.

Uber or Grab? Up to you. I've tried both, can't quite tell the difference in price. But Grab's UX sucks, compared to Uber. Simplicity is good.

Anyways, I'm cheapo. So I usually take UberPool. On lucky days, I end up travelling alone. Most days, I would be sharing with one other. Encounters ranged from complete indifference (ignore the stranger) to best buddies (as if we knew each other).

But this one day, there I was - the third party on the ride. 3 persons, 3 destinations. Geez, it was a looong ride. But a very cheap one. I was the last person in his drops. Took an hour. I might as well have taken the bus-and-train option for 1/6th the price. Sheesh.

On the last leg, I was comparing notes with the talkative Uber driver on Ubering in Singapore and in London. I mentioned about taking a Uber that was a Mercedes Benz in London. He told me there are Uber vehicles of high-end models in Singapore as well - Jaguar, BMW, etc. Huh? I was surprised, and have not encountered any so far here. Why would somebody who can afford such cars want to offer themselves for Uber services?

He said I will NEVER be able to get any. These are always driven by guys, and they hang around places like Clarke Quay on ladies' nights in the wee hours after midnight. They will only take bookings from ladies. Oh! 

Apparently, phone numbers do get exchanged, on occasions. Oh boy. It's an underworld. A different world. Are society norms evolving, or is it simply emergent behaviours from a complex adaptive system? Dunno. But I wish them well.

p/s: The way Uber and Grab is shaping the local scene, I can't quite figure out how Comfort Delgro is going to do well in the longer term. Disruption afoot. Perhaps another Xerox in the making. But for now, believe Uber is not even profitable. So judgement is still to be seen.

When the Market Over-reacts - London Bridge is Falling Down

Judging from the office bet that was going on then, I guess Brexit has been yet another Black Swan event in recent history. The bet was 8 for Brexit and 22 against. So most people from this side of the Commonwealth were very much expecting the UK to stay in the EU, notwithstanding the fact that the UK had never made the switch from their Pound to the Euro.

The day the results came out, the market took an immediate nosedive. My Singapore stocks went downhill, and was followed that same night thereafter with my US stocks as well. It was a universal wipe-out.

It was too late to do anything by the time I came home from work. It was Friday. What did I want to do? Actually, nothing. I didn't know how things would go the following week. Would it be an immediate recovery? Or would there be more panic and capitulation? No clue. Black Swans are ugly birds. So I remained indecisive and just stayed in the market and watched.

On Monday, things reversed very quickly. Whatever losses that happened on Friday were recovered by the end of Monday. I guess the irrationals had a weekend to ponder their regrets, much like a lot of Brits who finally realised what they had done.  In fact, since then, the market has been steadily climbing up further.

With the English team knocked out of the European Cup, the joke on the market was that the Brits had exited from the Euro twice in succession.

"London Bridge is falling down ..." 

"Oi, but this is Tower Bridge lah noob!"

Quite a non-event. Well, not quite. The Pound has been pounded. Time to plan on a holiday to London!?  Hurrah, ol' chap! Time for the Charge of the Light Brigade.

Related:
Yawning with the Bears of 2015
In Times of Fear, How Did You React?

How Much Thy Lunch?

There are some things we sometimes take for granted in our work routine. Lunch, is certainly a necessity in a typical work day.  But how much does your lunch at work cost?

Having worked in an away-from-CBD area for years, I've gotten so used to hawker centre food that is usually in the below $5 price range, kopi included.

Recently, I've shifted to a new workplace in the city and found myself experiencing instant lifestyle inflation. It's really hard to find a decent lunch at below $5 in town. It's not unusual for a lunch to be in the region of $20 even. WTF.

It's either the meal is expensive, or else it's "cheap" with a bad taste! I experienced the misfortune of being served a plate of rice which came with one tiny piece of meat and not much else. Really. I counted. It wasn't difficult. Their average customer must have the appetite of a rat. Had to hunt for an additional Ya Kun toast after that. I'm no rat.

Assuming an incremental cost of $5 per meal, that's easily an additional expense of $100 per month, or $1,200 a year.

There's of course the alternative of bringing your own lunch. But I very much prefer to walk around for lunch to get a bit of my step count going and get a bit of Vitamin D. It's a vice. And I'm no Dracula either.

Is that a nice slab of red meat?

Do superheroes need insurance?

Came across this from Aviva: Do Superheroes need insurance?

So do Wolverine, Batman, Spiderman, Superman and Hulk need insurance?

I think these guys need multi-million dollar insurance, seeing as how they are constantly causing lots of collateral damages. Especially the Hulk. Is there a shirt replacement insurance he can get as well? Superman might need that too? He keeps losing his suits whenever he changes into his underwear-outside outfit.

Batman and Spiderman can do with medical insurance. They seem fragile.

But I think no insurance company will want to provide any annuity scheme to them though. Pay and pay, seemingly forever. These guys live forever. CPF Life would go bankrupt with them.

I thought it was funny, yet sensible. Have a good laugh!

Inspirations from a Lin Dan Badminton Match - Traits of an Investor?

On Friday afternoon (26 Sep 2014), I had the opportunity to watch a Round of 16 badminton men's singles match of Asian Games 2014, pitting Lin Dan (China) against a Hong Kong player. By no means was it a pushover match. But what was inspiring was the way the game went towards the end.

Lin Dan had won the first game, and this was the second game. He was down 20-13. It looked like it was headed towards a third game. How to survive so many game points? But point by point, he clawed back, patiently, determined, unfettered - 9 points in total. Ultimately it ended 22-20 as he beat his worthy opponent. Class triumphed. Sparkles of the talent in him in the last few points secured.

Patience, determination, with an end in mind. Are these the traits needed for an investor as well?

Patience. Stick with a winning strategy. One that works over the long term. Exploit the time value of money.

Determination. Even as market gyrates on its ups and downs, withstand it. Avoid the urge to trade aimlessly.

An End in Mind. Know what the end goal is and compound the investment towards the end target, whatever it may be for the individual - $1m, $2m, whatever.

I wait in relish and hope for a final match up once again for a rematch between Datuk Lee Chong Wei (Malaysia) and Lin Dan (China).

My World Cup Team (of Dividend Value Stocks)

Warren Buffet in several of his talks cited a hypothetical situation for the audience to consider. If you only have a ticket on which you can only punch 10 holes, and each of these holes represent one stock you could invest in, and you can never change your mind thereafter for the rest of your life, what would you choose?

[You can find some of these videos of the talks on YouTube.]

Well, it's the World Cup season right now, so in the spirit of this global event taking place in Brazil, I shall extend that to a fantasy soccer team of 11 first team players. What would my first 11 be for a team of largely dividend-yielding samba stocks?  

I am going with a conservative and defensive oriented 4-4-2 formation.

Goalkeeper

There can only be one goalkeeper. This guy has to ensure that the opponents would not score and is the last man. For this, I would go with (1) OCBC. A big strong and friendly bank to hold the last line.

Defenders

For my defenders, I'm going with the two things that are the cause of  lots of heartburn - property and cars. The main reasons for our high headline inflation. Defensive stocks with high yields.

For property, I'm going with a couple of REITS, namely, (2) Capita Commercial Trust, (3) Capita Retail China Trust and (4) Mapletree Industrial Trust.  So that gives me 3 REITs covering commercial, retail and industrial properties. 

To round off the fourth player, I would go with (5) Vicom, a proxy play for car ownership.

Midfielders

Midfielders need to control the play. They have to create opportunities for offensives, and at times have to roll back to the defensive. For this, I would go with (6) Boustead, (7) Hour Glass, (8) Kingsmen Creative and (9) SATS.

Strikers

For the offensive play, I am looking for potential value-growth players that may not be as yet high yielding but have the potential to go far. For this, I pick (10) Global Logistic Properties and (11) Yangzijiang. Exposure to China, Japan and interestingly Brazil. 

It's pretty much a 80-20 rule. So that rounds up my first 11. What's yours?

[Disclaimer: I hold all the above stocks. But this is not a recommendation to buy any of these. Do make your own assessment before investing, always.]

How a penny made me feel like a millionaire

What's a penny worth?

Feels like a millionaire in some circumstances. It's such a contrast when our upbringings gave us such contrasting experiences.

What does it take to make us feel the sense of "satisfaction"? Between the $5 cup of gourmet coffee and the $1 cuppa at the friendly neighbourhood coffeeshop, is there sufficient marginal utility to want pay that $4 difference? Not to mention the difference of 300+ calories (kcal) involved!

Sometimes, there is.  To each his own. Enjoy your cuppa! *slurp*

Condo, wife, kids and a taxi

Earlier this evening, I hopped onto a cab home as I typical do each evening.  I had a fascinating ride in the Mercedes Cab and an even more engaging conversation with the taxi driver.  He seemed young and educated.  He did not look like the typical taxi driver. 

He was a chatty fellow and volunteered that his wife was a housewife and he had three kids to feed.  I congratulated him for achieving above the national benchmark. 

Fascinatingly, he was working as a Senior Engineer in an electronics manufacturing company on weekdays. Driving the taxi was his weekend job.  It seemed like he already had a well paying job as a professional engineer.  Why then was he driving a taxi?  I've heard of professionals who had lost their jobs in times of poor economic conditions and turned to taxi driving as a last resort.  But this certainly wasn't the case here.

To my further surprise, he said he was living in a condo.  Now highly curious, I asked him why he was driving a cab given that he was living in a condo and was a professional engineer?  To which, he said, "That's precisely the reason!". 

Apparently, in order to meet the lifestyle demand of a singe income family, a condo (someplace at Marine Parade) and a family of four dependents, he was working weekdays as a professional engineer.  The taxi income was to supplement his regular salary.  He drove on Fridays and Saturdays nights.  As an added benefit, he then had the Mercedes for his family weekend activities on Sundays.  Not bad.

It must be tough living such a busy lifestyle working six days a week to sustain the lifestyle that he had.  But it was apparently one he had come to terms with.  He seemed jovial and happy.

He had an interesting view on economics too.  He said that ever since the two Integrated Resorts opened, taxi business had picked up significantly.  Elaborating, he said that Singapore used to receive about 7 million visitors a year.  But eversince the Integrated Resorts opened for operations, the number of tourists had increased to 10 million a year.  Therefore, the demand for taxis had similar increased.  Taxi drivers were therefore earning 50% more than they used to.  It was quite a eureka moment for me.

I thought I already had enough surprises from this interesting gentleman.  But there was more.  When asked how much he could make as a two-nights-a-week taxi driver, he shared that he was making an average of $500 per weekend.  And that was after deducting all his taxi operating expenses!  He was making an additional $2,000 a month just driving about eight nights. 

Fascinating insights from a taxi ride.  What a wonderful Friday!  I hope you have the opportunity of meeting this jovial Mercedes taxi driver one day too.

Insinc with the times

Here's a great money saving deal which is a no brainer for all who travel on the MRT on weekdays prior to peak hours:  Go sign up at http://www.insinc.com/ and participate in their decongestion programme. 

You can take the MRT anytime as you wish, but you would receive more credits when taking the MRT during the pre-congestion hours.  These credits can then be 'spun' for possible rewards.  It's a snake-and-ladder game that generates prizes if you land on some lucky spots.

Thus far, I've received prizes ranging from $1 to $50 in the past few months which I've redeemed from AXS machines to credit into my MRT card.

Have fun decongesting, and learn about the carbon footprint avoidance you're also contributing to as well.

Savings is all relative

I've been giving my two school-going kids their weekly allowances.  My older boy who is in secondary school is given $20 a week.  My younger daughter who has reached the end of primary school is given $3 a week. Yet, the boy has practically no savings, every cent is spent.  My girl on the other hand has a net savings of more than $500 (inclusive rewards, and birthday ang pows).  Interesting isn't it?

One could argue that a secondary school student needs to spend more money than a primary school.  Perhaps the canteen food is more expensive.  Perhaps there is greater peer pressure to hang out and chill out.  Perhaps there are more CCA activities in the afternoons and hence the corresponding expenses.  But I suspect it's a question of being a "saver" versus a "spender"?

One interesting indicator is that whenever my son gets his allowance, he tends to spend big on the first few days of the week.  Instant gratification, and consequences be damned!  He can rapidly run out of cash before the end of the work and struggles to live on the balance for the rest of the week.

My daughter on the other hand has yet to exhibit these same behaviour.  So there is hope yet.  We shall see how things pan out next year when she is also in a secondary school.

Detroit, Automotive Capital of the World

2008 was a watershed year for many in the automotive industry. No less so than the BIG-3 which are headquartered in Detroit, Michigan. 

General Motors

Along the expanse of Woodward Avenue, Detroit celebrates an annual event in the month of August each year which sees cars from the 60's and 70's gathering along Woordward Avenue for an annual drive-by (see Woodward Dream Cruise).  I hear that Woodward Avenue is much like Route-66 and a nostalgic piligrimage for automotive lovers.  It is quite a sight to see the many oldies, both vintage cars and drivers alike during the week of the Woodward Dream Cruise!

Woodward Dream Cruise 2011

While it seems that the automotive industry is very much alive along the fringe of Detroit city, it seems that Detroit city itself may have seen better days.  A fate similarly shared by its basketball team, the Detroit Pistons. Many dilipidated buildings abound, even within the heart of the city.  For a city of its size, it seems awefully quiet, even on a typical weekday.  Apparently, the city once hosted a population of 2 million.  Today, it stands at a scant 750,000.  Many have chosen to move out to the suburbs, where new housings are a-plenty.  Perhaps the only times when the city thrives is when baseball or football games are on.

Vacant buildings in the heart of Detroit

Still, there are positive signs that the city is slowly, very slowly, recovering.  The automotive industry continues to dominate its industry, and hence its economic weakness.  GM, Ford and Chrysler, as well as many ancillary businesses continue to recover and perhaps prosper.

A very simple lesson here: diversify.

When Japanese is great, when Japanese is bad?

It would seem that the nuclear meltdown risk is gradually tapering down with positive hope in sight.  However, the effects of the fall-out is still propagating.  Restaurants which branded their Japanese heritage were often seen as up-market.  But right now, the same branding is probably a death knell.  Japanese restaurants are experiencing an immense sense of emptiness with no customer in sight.  Perhaps, it is now the optimal time for these restaurants to do whatever major maintenance work needed and wait out this period of fear for all things Japanese.  Will these companies survive the drought in business?

Japan and the Rest of the World

Understandably, the Japanese stock market is nose-diving.  In the aftermath of the multiple disasters of earthquake and tsunami, and the continuing threat of multiple nuclear meltdown, Japanese businesses are deeply affected one way or another.  Aside from property loss, it is also the loss of manufacturing facilities, evacuation and relocation of its workforce, dislocation of distribution facilities and networks, and the impact of energy shortage within Japan.  There would probably be an even heavier sell down thereafter to convert stocks to cash to support rebuilding, especially to rebuild households.  There is perhaps room for a 20-40% drop. 

On the other hand, the reasons for a global meltdown of the stockmarkets weigh heavily on the unstable events in MENA and the risk of a slowdown in the 2nd largest global economy (Japan).  There is perhaps room for overselling and hence an opportunity to buy in for the longer term.  Certainly, there will be a need in massive infrastructure reconstruction in Japan as well.  But that is probably going to be on hold till the risks at the nuclear plant are brought fully under control.

Overnight millionaires (or not)

Fascinating e-mail this.  Looks like there are millions of people supposedly declared millionaires at the stroke of an e-mail.

----- Original Message -----

From: info@anthonywang.com

Sent: Friday, January 14, 2011 12:03 PM

Subject: Final Notice

> We wish to notify you again that you were listed as a beneficiary to the
> total sum of US$18.5 million Dollars in the intent of the deceased (name
> now withheld since this is our second letter to you).
> We contacted you because you bear the surname identity and therefore can
> present you as the beneficiary to the inheritance since there is no
> written will. Our legal services aim to provide our private clients with a
> complete service. We are happy to prepare Wills, set-up and administer
> Trusts, carry out the Administration of Estates and prepare and administer
> Powers Of Attorney.
> All the papers will be processed in your acceptance. In your acceptance of
> this deal, we request that you kindly forward to us your letter of
> acceptance, your current telephone and fax numbers and a forwarding
> address to enable us file necessary documents at our high court probate
> division for the release of this sum of money in your favour.
> Yours faithfully,
> Anthony Wang

Blog Talk 2010

It's interesting to observe, after having posted several months on this Blog, just where the audience is from.  Expectedly, while the majority of hits were from Singapore, the number two and three audiences were from US and Russia.  I've a funny feeling that those from Russia are either bots, spam or scam [with apologies to innocent Russians]. As for the audience from Singapore, I figure there are a number of repeat customers who are probably accessing daily.  Anonymous friends I guess. Others are from more esoteric locations.  Amazing.

In terms of topics of interests, it seems that a very significant portion of views were on topics concerning Non-Convertible Preference Shares (NCPS).  That is probably a reflection of market interest in income producing investment.  Safe haven?  I guess I would get a lot more hits if I keep talking about NCPS.  But that's not my aim.  So no, not going to happen.

Sadly, this Blog remains with no public "Followers".  I do look forward to receiving the 1st Follower one day. 

Welcome to 2011!

Merry X'mas 2010

It's the eve of X'mas, and a time for reflection.  Has this been a worthwhile year, and the giving done?  It's a wonderful time to celebrate the decisions and the outcomes. 

If only we had a place and weather like winter in Nami Island (Korea).

But we face the deck of cards we are dealt with, and remain happy to achieve what we can accomplish within those boundaries.

In any case, it's the last week to contribute to SRS and to top up your spouse's CPF!  I'm done.  Have you?

Merry X'mas all!  May your year been a fruitful one.  *burp*

A tour and a view on Korea

I've just concluded a whirlwind tour, holidaying in Korea, traversing across Incheon, Seoul, Cheju and Daegu.  It was not without trepidation given the situation at the border. But it would seem that Koreans were generally nonplussed about the whole affair.  The view was one of "don't care, leave them alone".

With the threat of North Korea always on their mind, defence spending will continue to be a constant burden and a drain on government coffers.  Interestingly, South Korea has switched from giving rice to giving barley to North Korea, and there is an interesting logic to this.  Rice can be stored, but barley cannot.  Therefore, doing so is to force the North Koreans to distribute the barley to its people, rather than to store it to support the military.  There is much logic amidst the madness.

In so far as unification is concerned, it is most definitely not on the cards under present circumstances. One school of thought is that only if the North develops its economy and becomes more prosperous, will unification possibility become more realistic.  The thinking is that if the people of the North starts to enjoy a life of wealth, will it still ever want to go to war?  Therefore, the best bet is for the North to be influenced by China as the later becomes increasingly affluent.

Having experienced early winter in North Korea, I must attest that it is really unbearable to be out in the open.  Even with four layers of cloth on, headgear, glove and scarf, I was still freezing cold.  With temperature swinging from 0 degrees celsius on one day, and -10 the next, the extremeties are really severe.  Let alone going to war under such drastic conditions. Not anybody can operate in such conditions. The North-South situation today is very different from that of the Korean War, when South Korea had nothing but 50,000 troops then.

The welfare system in Korea seems to be one that takes care of the ageing populance. But government spending on education is probably low, consequently, the cost of education burden on the typical family is high.  That explains why many Koreas choose to study overseas. Afterall, if studying at home is just marginally cheaper than studying overseas, why not consider studying overseas and pick up Mandarin or English? 

I've often heard that Koreans send their girls for complete plastic makeovers when they graduate from high school, and apparently this is not a fable.  In fact, it is apparently common coffeeshop talk among Korean girls to talk about the latest plastic surgery that they have done.  They are so advanced in this respect that FaceShop even offers a wrinkle removal cream containing botox substance.  Wrinkle-free guaranteed, for a given duration.  No more painful botox injections on a six-monthly basis. Simply apply the cream whenever needed!  It seems like there's much worth thinking about from an investment viewpoint on beauty care companies in Korea.

With the social belief that "man in front, woman follow behind", it seems that for the same fresh graduate seeking a job, given the same academic background and results, the man gets twice the salary expected from that of the woman.  The reason for this dichotomy lies in the belief that woman will get married, give birth and stop working.  Therefore, there is little reason to invest in their training and career development therefore.  Korea appears to suffer from the same problem as Singapore, being perpectually short of workers.  With the social expectations creating an unbalanced environment for its women, I think this is going to be a challenge and impediment to their development.  Their birth rate also compares similarly poorly as Singapore, at 1.2x birth per family, and is probably going to result in an increasingly aged population and the social burden in healthcare and social needs.

On our very first day in Incheon-Seoul, we were greeted by snowfall. What a wonderful experience!  They should invite their Northern neighbours to visit Nami Island for a sojourn during winter. I've never watched "Winter Sonata", which was filmed here. But, if you've been there, you'll realise how beautiful it really is.  Peace and bliss.

I am remaining vested in LionGlobal Korea, an equity unit trust fund, and I remain positive about the future of Korea, despite its many challenges that it has yet to overcome, and the ever present threat of conflict with its Northern brothers.

Disclaimer: This is not a sales pitch. It is merely my own views and is not based on any economic, fundamental or technical analysis.

Stock down, more buyers than sellers

Ok, so there're several key events these few days.  Incident in Korea.  China imposing further controls.  Ireland forced into securing a bail-out. Thanksgiving holidays on Thursday.  US floods the market by printing more bills.  My cable box reboots itself again.

Is there enough to cause the overall drop in the market?

Mysteriously, I noticed many SGX stocks went down today, yet the Buy volume exceeded the Sell volume.  What does this bodes?