Showing posts with label Financial Planning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Financial Planning. Show all posts

26 August 2019

Rise of the Financial Ruler - by Paul See

Reading stuff on the mobile phone is quite an addictive thing. But I think we are all going to experience increasing cases of eye problems in time to come. As it is, my eyes blur out and lose focus after staring at laptop screens and mobile phones all day long. Hourly breaks are recommended.

So it's probably good to break off and read books and magazines when I don't really have to be stuck to these electronic hypnoses.

The libraries are stocked full of options. And the National Library Board has been setting up shop at places where people tend to commute. Quite clever. Know thy customer.

The one recently opened at VivoCity has a really cool layout. Its reading area at one end faces Sentosa Island with full height windows. The view should be really cool in the evenings. Pun intended.

Anyway, I picked up this book from the VivoCity Library recently. The cover page was partly what attracted my attention (note the "Financial Ruler"). The other reason is that it is really thin. I figured it would be light enough and convenient enough for light reading while I'm commuting on the MRT.

"Rise of the Financial Ruler", by Paul See (Code: 332.024).

The style of writing is really fun. It's definitely not the usual personal finance book with serious overtones. Over 14 chapters of only 74 pages, it weaves a tale centered in ancient Egypt; 7 years of feasts and 7 years of famine. Sounds familiar? Biblicalicious.

It's quite fun if you were to try and relate the events in the story to recent events that impacted financial journeys in the past decade, including events specific to Singapore. At the same time, we could also relate to the personal finance ideas being alluded to.

In the final 37 pages, it explains the motivations and ideas behind the tales of each chapter. Pretty neat.

Worth a read.

So which is your persona? Benjamin or Reuben?

12 August 2019

15 Ways to Save Money, Redux

Was watching this YouTube video by Lavendaire on 15 Ways to Save Money (YouTube) She is based in Los Angeles. So these 15 ways to save money might have a certain slant towards American consumerism.

But here's a quick summary of the 15 ways, and my thoughts on some of these points:

"1. Use cash instead of credit card". You will realise how much you are actually spending. Credit card charges high-interest rates if the debts are not paid in full. By using case, you will be pending what you have, versus spending on borrowed money.

I think it's just a complete lack of discipline that can cause a problem. Credit cards can come with various benefits like cash-back, mileage, etc. So I don't see a problem if one is paying in full the bills every month.

"2. Write down all of your spendings on paper". Know where you are spending.

Some people need to write things down to register mentally. I work fine with spreadsheets. So it's probably ok to record all your spendings on spreadsheets. Also, I find it easy enough since most of my spendings are cashless. The credit card bills and bank statements would have the information I need to reference to record into my spreadsheet. Whatever I actually spend with cash are few and far in between. Much of it for food and miscellaneous. and generally, they aren't much.

"3. Cancel any unnecessary subscription". For those that you don't use anymore, cancel or put on hold the subscriptions.

I can agree with that. 

"4. Always google a coupon code". Get the discount!

This is something I'm not in the habit of doing. Perhaps couponing is less of a practice in Singapore? Neither do I do a lot of online ordering. Or maybe I'm just in denial?

"5. Use E-Bay to get cash back from purchases".

I don't do much of E-Bay either. Although, I must admit I did quite a bit when I was residing in the US for a short period. It's a whole lot of difference when you click buy one day and the goods show up in a day or two!

"6. Start building an emergency fund". Build up 6 to 9 months of your monthly expenses to deal with any emergency.

Definitely a piece of good advice. Especially if there is any risk of losing your job, or to deal with some unexpected emergencies.

"7. Schedule your shopping allowance". Add items to a shopping list. And buy only on scheduled days. It helps to control impulse buying.

Curbs unnecessary spendings. Window shopping should be kept to simply that.

"8. Wait it out". Give yourself 14-30 days, to curb impulsive shopping.

Good advice.  If after 30 days, the desire remains, then maybe it is something that gives you love.  [Borrowing from Marie Kondo's words]

"9. Buy only what you really need and will really use". Buying bulk just because they are on sale may not be the way. 

Anything else is just clutter and junk.

"10. Use your public library". It's free.

And it's great here in Singapore because the libraries are well stocked. And in recent years, the National Library Board has been locating libraries in publicly accessible places, including popular shopping malls - like VivoCity!  Now if only I can figure out how to convince them to subscribe to all my favourite magazines.

"11. Plan your meals around grocery store sales". Go for items on sale. And use those coupons!

This takes some getting used to. Not something I would particularly bother as neighbourhood food isn't all that expensive around here. Plus, groceries can be cheaply bought in most cases from supermarkets. In Japan, the basement food shops are heavily discounted towards 8-9 pm near closing time. 

"12. Buy used instead of new". There can be good stuffs that are opened but not used. 

I don't feel too positively with this. Too many opportunities for con jobs if bought secondhand from online channels, like Carousell.  Never know what you are actually getting either, hygiene wise.

"13. Make your own versus buying". DIY whatever you can. Cook at home if you're good at it.

I'd leave that to wifey. She bakes, big time. 

"14. Cut or do your own hair". Yet another DIY.

I wouldn't trust myself to do that. And besides, it's only $10 at the local barber. I'm fine with that.  I guess some other equivalents would be: "wash your car yourself", "clean up the house yourself, don't engage a part-time cleaner (or maid)", etc.

"15. Get social and swap with a friend".

Need a lot of friends? Probably end up with even more group buys and spendings instead! Hah.

13 April 2016

Pathways to Investment Options or How to Get Rich Without Being Scammed

Giraffe has done an awesome job collating the various investment means available in Singapore, and has even provided some step-by-step guides on how to get going for each of them.

This is really awesome. Have a read: 17 Investment Options (by GiraffeValue)

I think it's a most useful source of reference to help somebody embarking on the "doing" part. The closest I ever got round to was this weak attempt in 24 Tales in the Journey to Wealth.


On reflection, I recall that I never had much of an interest to do such things till age 39. Up till then, I had effectively outsourced the job to insurance agents. The wiser me has realised the foolhardiness (and laziness) of yesteryear's, and that a little bit of effort in DIY can reap a far greater difference for the future me.

My very first significant step started when I opened a Fundsupermart account. What a journey since. Have a go by taking the first step forward.

Related:
Expectations of returns on investment
On Investments
On Financial Planning

18 January 2016

The Gahmen is Always Wrong?

Once in a while the Gahmen pushes out a post on retirement planning and some basic guidelines, to encourage citizens to work out a viable financial future. Unfortunately, once posted on Facebook, all they're going to get is a lot of brickbats. Lots of random eggs go flying. The comments kind of irritates me quite a bit.


"Give me back my CPF and I would be fine"

How? Because the individual can do a better job of investing it? Sure, then use your CPF-OA to do so and prove it. Beat the 4-6% annualised over a time span. The ones who succeed probably don't need to depend on their CPF.

"Set a minimum wage"

Well, one company in the US did this. Ends up those who got squeezed in between became highly de-motivated as they found themselves being paid the same as those who used to be a lot less. Overall, it would mean an increase in cost to the business owner. Potentially, they could go out of business? Then no more job? But some could argue that it's a "scare tactic". I say it is very real. The less productive companies will die very quickly. And then there goes that job.

"Set my pay in pace with inflation"

Sure. But why say this to the Gahmen? Unless you're a public servant, they ain't the one paying your salary. If your boss ain't paying you right, time to leave. Else, it's really your fault. Either you suck (at what you do), or you suck (for hanging around).
"Gahmen should top up my pay"

Sure. They already do so through transfers to those who are typically poor or aged or in need of help. But perhaps it doesn't benefit everyone, so it's not felt across the board. Somebody has to pay for all these by the way. The Gahmen doesn't generate revenue from nowhere. Guess who's going to pay?

"Just give me my CPF when I reach 55"

Anything above the Basic Retirement Sum in CPF-SA and the minimum CPF-MA amounts can be drawn out then. So if one doesn't even have the minimum to provide that margin of safety, I'm not sure what's there to talk about. It's not about feeling rich and living like no tomorrow then. It's about the risk of living too long. Could be a happy problem, or a very unhappy one if health and happiness don't work out well. Don't know, haven't reached that point yet.

"I'm 85, it's too late"

My sympathy to the pioneer generation. That generation often have many kids. More kids is a diversification. But sometimes things don't work out well over time - parent's fault, children's fault, etc. If they never got married and have kids, that would be a zero. In addition, their education level was typically lower then. So job opportunities and the pay to go with it would have been a challenge. Help them.

Epilogue

The one that irks me the most was a remark that the cost of living has been going up (it's called "inflation" I think), especially beer. Oh please, stop wasting money and your health quaffing large intakes of beer. Drink green tea lah. It's called living within your means. WTF.

If you're living day-to-day, you will live poor, everyday. Fail to plan, or plan to fail? Having no game plan is just gaming away. Try Toto, might do better, if so.

07 August 2015

What is the inflation rate for Singapore? [reposted]

I was doing some analysis of my investment portfolio to assess how close I was to being financially independent, and started doing some "what-if" of the various planning parameters assumed. One of the important factor was the future "inflation rate".

I've always worked under the impression that 3% was a reasonable number to use, and I wondered how realistic that was? Tweaking the figures between 2% and 4% showed dramatically drastic impacts. It is clearly a very sensitive parameter - i.e. small changes would cause disproportionate outcomes.

I came across one article (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/inflation-cpi) which mentioned that the average was 2.75% (from 1962 to 2015).

Checking against the Department of Statistics data (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/browse-by-theme/prices), I obtained the following:

Table 1. Time Series on CPI (2014=100) and Inflation Rate (as at Feb 2015)
Year Consumer Price Index (2014=100) Annual Inflation rate
1980 50.6 8.5
1981 54.7 8.2
1982 56.9 3.9
1983 57.4 1.0
1984 58.9 2.6
1985 59.2 0.5
1986 58.4 -1.4
1987 58.7 0.5
1988 59.6 1.5
1989 61.0 2.3
1990 63.1 3.5
1991 65.2 3.4
1992 66.7 2.2
1993 68.2 2.3
1994 70.3 3.1
1995 71.5 1.7
1996 72.5 1.4
1997 74.0 2.0
1998 73.8 -0.3
1999 73.8 0.0
2000 74.8 1.3
2001 75.6 1.0
2002 75.3 -0.4
2003 75.6 0.5
2004 76.9 1.7
2005 77.3 0.5
2006 78.0 1.0
2007 79.7 2.1
2008 84.9 6.6
2009 85.4 0.6
2010 87.8 2.8
2011 92.5 5.2
2012 96.7 4.6
2013 99.0 2.4
2014 100.0 1.0



Based on the more recent 35 years of history, it seems to average only 2.22%.

Given this, I will revise to 2.5% as my planning norm, and to use 3% only to test the worst-case scenario. Using too high a figure may be unnecessarily inflating the extent needed from my investment portfolio, and inevitably postponing my FIRE. *hmm*

Can I retire now?

--
For an alternate view on this subject:
Bully the Bear's take on personal inflation

I recall having a bowl of Mee Pok Dry at $1.50 in 1980. Today, a typical bowl would cost $3 to $4. That correlates reasonably with the doubling from the above inflation data.

Of course, there are also other data points that could suggest otherwise - e.g. housing.

If you're looking for a less expensive bowl of Mee Pok Dry, it's still possible to do so at certain places. Here's one from a coffee shop in Teck Whye.


15 May 2015

A Millionaire and Yet Completely Broke

How does a multi-millionaire become a bankrupt? Time's story about Allen Iverson is instructive. Allen was a NBA basketball star who earned an income of US$145 million over a 15 years playing career. That's a shitload of income. It's almost US$10 million a year. Yet, he appears to be completely broke now. Broke. Zero.

How did it happen? Simple. Not living within his means. It's a lifestyle of extravagance, indulgence to the extremes, and a complete lack of prudence in financial planning. Perhaps none at all? Almost.

Luckily for him, as broke as he is now, there is a silver lining. He has a lifetime endorsement contract with Reebok for which a $30 million trust fund has been established. While he will not be able to touch that till 2030, at least thereafter, his golden years will still be taken care of. Let's hope he doesn't blow that too! It's the money he doesn't have his hands on that is going to save him. Meanwhile, he will have to figure things out and live with regrets for another 15 years.


A colleague was sharing about the mental stress his wife-to-be and him were having. They are getting married soon. Their house has come, and the wedding is coming. All seems great. I thought he was going to tell me how happy they were. Problem is, the money's gone. They have run down their cash to zero. Any additional expenses and they would be like Allen Iverson.

My advice to him was that he had better learn to live within his means. He may have to forego some of his wants and trim expenses. As he would be receiving a pay increment soon, I suggested to him - set up another bank account and keep your itchy hands off it. Henceforth, for any additional increment he gets, automatically GIRO over the pay increment to the other account. And then use that account for investments for whatever longer term needs he would have, rather to spend on immediate wants. That would effectively force him to avoid inflating his lifestyle.

I hope he finds the courage and commitment to strike that balance.

For other stories: 
Condo, Wife, Kids and a Taxi
Cashflow: A Tale of Stable Income


15 September 2014

Retiring at Age 60 at $2,000 a Month

TODAY had an article about the lovely Tey family of four. The husband is age 37 and wife is 36. Their two daughters are 6 and 2 years old. The couple plan to retire at age 60 with a monthly income of $2,000 per month for 30 years. By age 60, their kids should have completed their tertiary education as well.

It is commendable that they project their income need to be so low. I would assume that they are living in a HDB flat, no aircon, no car, no health issues and no parents they have to look after.  Possibly no mobile phones, no cable TV as well? Else, it's difficult to see how $2,000 is viable.

The couple appear to be risk adverse and have largely socked away savings in fixed income products. Not going to go far with this risk adverse posture. But they don't really have the need to take higher risk given their very low target. Thought they still have time on their side. 23 to 24 years in fact.

My first impression was that $2,000 is easy. If they are both earning a healthy salary and sock up their CPF-SA to the max, they would more than meet that retirement need without requiring further retirement funds. But they would have to tide through the first five years of retirement (age 60 to 64) with another $120,000. Doesn't seem difficult.

I was surprised that the article mentioned $800,000 as the retirement savings goal to fund this retirement. As I mentioned earlier, just max out the CPF-SA (CPF-Life) for both, plus another $120,000, and they would be well on their way. To be on the safe side, add more for an emergency fund. Perhaps they are not Singaporeans?

Even if the retirement is to be funded without the use of CPF-Life payout, I was wondering why $800,000 is needed to meet the $2,000 a month goal? Using the 4% extraction norm, $800,000 would offer $32,000 a year, or $2,667 a month. That's far more than necessary. Alternatively, if we assume $2,000 x 12 months x 30 years, we get $720,000. Again, $800,000 seems excessive. Probably inflation has been factored in, which is reasonable. Otherwise, without factoring for inflation, $600,000 (@4% dividends/income) should do it. Such a later approach carries risk of course if the underlying portfolio value drops.

How would this plan de-rail? My thoughts are:

  • Unfunded education expenses for their kids (also mentioned in the article)
  • Expensive overseas holidays
  • Medical crisis
  • Inflation spike (Internet, phone, power/gas/water utilities, food) 
  • Bought a condo
  • Bought a car
  • Took silly risks with their retirement portfolio (like oil pods, gold and property scams, etc)

Wish them all the best and a steady route to retirement.

Disclaimer: This is just a personal opinion, I'm not a financial advisor, nor trained in the art.

14 August 2014

Views on Youngsters Not Having Enough Savings

On the radio this morning, the DJ was talking about our youngsters not having much savings and invited callers to share their views. The comments that came in include:
  • CPF is good enough.
  • I'll save, if only my boss is prepared to pay me more!
  • I love online shopping, how to save?
CPF is Good Enough

Oh dear, oh dear. CPF, where got enough? It's only enough for the lower income groups. They don't demand as much and so they can get by with the little income stream post retirement. Alternatively, you better have a lot of kids who are good to you. These youngsters might want to read (1) CPF as an asset that generates income (by SGYI), and (2) my past musings on CPF.

Ignorance.

I'll Save, if my Boss is Prepared to Pay Me More!

If he/she does pay you more, you think you'll save? The more you get, the more you spend. That's lifestyle inflation. It's the discipline to always set aside a sum for investment or savings that's going to make it work. Pay yourself first. Take a pay cut - i.e. slice a portion away from the monthly salary to park into savings or investments.

Lack of ownership.

I Love Online Shopping, How to Save?

I don't know how much online shopping one needs. Are those wants or needs? Beyond a certain point, it's just an addiction. Piles of junk and untouched items taking up space and collecting dust thereafter. The pack rat in a modern form.

Indulgence.

Concluding Remarks

It seems the young can't see the need to save and invest. Retirement needs is a future that is still far away.


It is really hard to ask the young to think so far ahead. Living by the day is pretty normal isn't it? Each eve to the next paycheck, the bank account tends towards zero.

We learn so much maths in school, but we never taught our kids to apply the same maths towards financial planning. Wouldn't it be so much more interesting?

Chapter 1 - Algebra, zzz.
Chapter 2 - Calculus, zzz.
Chapter 3 - Graphs, zzz.
:
Chapter 10 - Financial Planning - how it all comes together!?

Education.

20 July 2014

A $29,000 Problem to Financial Freedom

Surrender or Wait for Death

Well, we did it. Or she did it rather. My wife decided to surrender her only whole life insurance policy. We concluded that there was really no value in her owning such a policy when there's really no need to have such a sum to protect either myself or the kids.


As a housewife, why is there still a need for her to own this insurance policy? No point waiting for "till death do us part for" the returns from this policy.

The insurance agent was nifty and processed it in due course. The cheque for $29,000+ came in within a week, and is now safely deposited.

A Matter of Choices

Next question, what to do with it? Memories of the squandered $million$ case that went down the tube came to mind. Of course, this is several magnitude less of a problem. A happy problem in fact.

- Leave it in the bank savings account - build up the emergency fund, low interest rate, but risk free?

- Contribute to her CPF Medisave account to bring it to the the limit, earn 4% returns at the same time, but locked in?

- Buy more dividend yielding stocks on SGX, accept the risks of volatility?

- Buy Unit Trust to diversify globally, accept the leakage from annual charges?

- Buy ETFs to diversift globally, accept the risk of poor liquidity?

What would you do? For now, my wife says, she wants to see the sum appear on her savings account first. Feels *shiok* first mah.

Either way, that's also a few hundred dollars (avoidance from not having to pay the monthly insurance) freed up to do other things with. Invest that sum too?

Related:
Whole Life Insurance - A Good Deal or a Dead Deal?

11 July 2014

Kids Education Revisited - Back to the Future

Kids education - it's such an important part of the early pangs for parents. I had previously shared about my own misadventures on this (Misadventures of the Education Savings Fund). I thought I might do a theoretic study of this and rewind the clock. Were I to start this journey from the birth of my child, how would it have looked like instead?

Below table illustrates the whole plan. Assuming birth in 1999, I would place $2,000 per year for the first 4 years. That gives me 8 blocks of $1,000 which I could invest into a diversified portfolio of unit trust in various regional markets. In particular, equity unit trusts covering (1) US, (2) Europe, (3) Asia Pacific ex-Japan, (4) Global Emerging Markets, (5) Singapore, (6) Asia Pacific Small Caps, as well as (7) Global Bonds and (8) Money Market Fund. That would have given a good diversification.

In subsequent years, I would then top up annually with $500. Basically, the 'ang pow' money. And then top this up with a monthly RSP of $200 per month. Assuming an annualised investment return (ROI) of 6.5%, we should have a tidy sum of well over $100,000 for the varsity funds, assuming $25,000 needed per year for 4-years at a local university.  Rebalance the unit trusts with equal amount in each.

Below profile is based my girl's. Guys would have a further two years to work with. Even if on the eve of year 19, the market were to collapse by (no more than) 30%, the portfolio would still suffice.

Age Year Ad-hoc  RSP (mthly)  ROI Extracted  Portfolio
1 1999  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $    4,400
2 2000  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $    9,086
3 2001  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $  14,077
4 2002  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $  19,392
5 2003  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  23,552
6 2004  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  27,983
7 2005  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  32,702
8 2006  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  37,727
9 2007  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  43,080
10 2008  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  48,780
11 2009  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  54,851
12 2010  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  61,316
13 2011  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  68,201
14 2012  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  75,534
15 2013  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  83,344
16 2014  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  91,662
17 2015  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $100,520
18 2016  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $109,953
19 2017  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  25,000  $  95,000
20 2018  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  25,000  $  79,075
21 2019  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  25,000  $  62,115
22 2020  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  20,000  $  49,053

I guess one adjustment to the above plan would be to keep the contributions from year 16 onwards in bonds and money market funds to mitigate the risk further. And with each passing year thereafter, to shift the contributions to cash-only in preparation for the annual draw down for the 4 years.

If the market does well, there would still be a tidy balance for my little one to get started on her journey to retirement as well.

30 June 2014

Whole Life Insurance - a good deal or a dead deal?

My wife has a whole life insurance policy for a sum assured of $35,000 for which she has been paying $613.80 a year.  She started this policy as a teenager at a very young age of 18 and the policy has been in force for the past 29 years.

According to the latest projection from the insurer (as checked from its online portal), the projected surrender value at age 65 is $85,099. This includes both the guaranteed and non-guaranteed components.

I worked through the maths and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) worked out to be 3.97%.

Its cash value, if the policy was surrendered now, is estimated to be $29,810. Suppose she cashed out this sum and invest at a 6.5% return, and she continued to contribute the annual sum $613.80 to this investment, she could achieve an IRR at age 65 of 4.9% for a sum of $112,503.

At 5% returns, the IRR would be 4.12%, $89,009.
At 6% returns, the IRR would be 4.64%, $104,058.
At 7% returns, the IRR would be 5.15%, $121,624.
At 8% returns, the IRR would be 5.65%, $142,108.
At 9% returns, the IRR would be 6.15%, $165,968.
At 10% returns, the IRR would be 6.63%, $193,730.

My assessment is that 6% to 9% investment return is in fact achievable with a well considered dividend-yielding value investment in SGX shares. Not unlike my fantasy soccer team.

The possibility of generating $104,058 to $165,968 by the time she is age 65, and yielding dividends of 4% would imply a passive income in the range of $4,162 to $6,639 per year.  That's $347 to $553 per month.

The current cash value at $29,810 is close to the sum assured of $35,000. She is a housewife and there is really nothing that she needs to protect with this sum of money.

Worth considering?

27 June 2014

DIY Insurance - Buy Term and Invest the Rest

An often said advice about investing for retirement is to simply "buy term and invest the rest", rather than buying lots of endowments, insurance-linked policies and what not. The idea is to buy term insurance for protection, and invest the rest for retirement income (Bahamas anyone? Or Onsen in Hokkaido?). I do agree with this notion, provided that one is prepared to gain some appreciation about investment first. Else, one may in fact be better off going with those insurance based policies to fund protection and retirement.


Doing It Yourself

There is a portal recently started by Providend (Christopher Tan) for DIY Insurance. It offers price comparisons of insurance plans from various insurance companies. Pretty nifty. Although, the big ones like Prudential and AI are clearly absent.

I gave it a go and tried two profiles to examine how much the term insurance would cost.

20 Year Old

For a person at age 20, male, non-smoker. for a sum assured of $200,000 for death and total permanent disability, the annual premiums from various companies like AXA, NTUC Income and Tokio Marine were in the range of $294 to $315.

That seems doable for a young adult with a reasonable starting salary. For a fresh graduate or diploma holder (which is about 40-60% of each cohort), that would probably represent 10-15% of his basic salary.

Why would a young, presumably single person, need to buy such insurance? Well, it would be to provide a level of protection for one's dependents. Who might these dependents be? Could be parents, wife, and children. But more importantly, I feel that it is important to secure and have such a protection in place while one is still healthy and insurable - i.e. there are no exclusions or loading to the cost of insurance due to any pre-existing illness.

The challenge is, would a young person at this tender starting stage of his career, withstand the idea that 10% of his salary goes into an insurance for which there are no returns to be expected? The only return is only when one 'kaputs' - hits the jackpot to for early entry to the Pearly Gates! Touch wood. But this is insurance in the truest sense. Dealing with the unexpected.

45 Year Old

For a person at age 45, male, non-smoker, for a sum insured of $200,000 for death and total permanent disability, the annual premiums from various companies like AXA, Aviva, NTUC Income, Manulife and Tokio Marine were in the range of $728 to $916.

As one reaches this age, it would probably become more apparent why such a form of insurance is indeed desirable. There is now family to seriously worry about. Probably a few kids and schooling. Unfortunately, it is just as likely that by this age, one would be facing various illnesses and other complications - hypertension, diabetes, prior surgery, slip disc, etc.

From the above example, a $800,000 protection would amount to under $4,000 of annual premiums. As it is, I am paying an average of $2,000 a month on average, to achieve the equivalent protection, with investment components projected to achieve a return of $750,000 by age 62. That's $24,000 per year!

Regrets and Realisation

I would have been better of paying the $4,000 in annual premiums for the term life insurance coverage of $800,000 and take the remaining $20,000 to invest. As it is, I've been achieving an internal rate of return of 20% for the last few years of investment. Realistically though, I am only expecting 6.5% over the longer term. Regardless, I do believe that I would have generated a far better rate of return than what I'm actually getting now from the endowment and ILP insurance plans.

Had I understood this better when I was young, the premium would only have been even lower, at $1,200 a year, for the term life insurance coverage of $800,000. Wow! Missed opportunities. Quite an opportunity cost.

Over time, as one's investment grows, the need for term insurance actually will taper down since the investment component will make up the shortfall. As the kids come of age and starts working, one only need to protect the spouse. And when the whole investment portfolio has reached the point of financial independence, there is no longer a need for any term insurance coverage even.

With that, my take is that I should have bought term insurances with different timelines. If I could wind back the clock, this is what I would have done:

Age 24 - started work - buy $200,000 term for 30 years (ending age 54)
Age 27 - married - buy another $200,000 term for 30 years (ending age 57)
Age 30 - 1st child (boy) born - buy another $200,000 term for 25 years (ending age 55)
Age 32 - 2nd child (girl) born - buy another $200,000 term for 23 years (ending age 55; girl doesn't need to serve NS, so it's 2 years less)

Amount may have to be more, depending on the lifestyle to maintain. But the idea is to provide enough coverage with each additional dependent, and to cover the kids only until they start working. They ought to be making a living and contribute to the family right?

It would be really silly for a person to hold a term insurance when one is no longer working. After all, the protection is to deal with loss of income isn't it?

And as one ages and builds up an investment portfolio, the term insurance is only to make up for the shortfall to achieve financial independence for the spouse. The math is really simple, though a spreadsheet would certainly be a big help.

In Conclusion

Buy term, and invest the rest!

And oh yes, maintain a hospitalisation/medical insurance! Looking forward to clarity on the enhancements to the CPF Medishield scheme.

Caveat: The figures are illustrative and may differ depending on individual conditions.

p/s: I am not an insurance agent nor a financial advisor. This is purely my personal opinion and hindsight views for my personal and family's considerations.

23 June 2014

Retiring single and on $2,000 per month


The Case

One of my sister is only a fistful of years away from retirement. Her lifestyle is generally a frugal (if not miserly!) one. She has no mobile phone, no cable TV, no aircon, no car (in fact, no license!). Single and hence no kids either. Zilch. Simple lifestyle, doesn't cost much. A Mustachio lifestyle!

She lives in a HDB flat that has been fully paid for. My mother has in fact set aside a sum of money that will pay for all the utilities (water and electricity) for at least another 20 years. Maybe less if the price of utilities inflate.

She has some 'vice' though. She likes to travel. Occasionally, she also seems to splurge quite a bit on geomancy ornaments and temple offerings. Hobby and beliefs.

Retirement Income - The Current Situation

She said she expects to receive about $800 per month from CPF Life. I figured she would probably survive on under $2,000 a month. With $800 already coming from CPF Life, that's a shortfall of only $1,200. That doesn't seem difficult. I figured if she could invest a sum of $360,000 at a 4% yield, she would have a perpetual income to meet that gap. Didn't seem difficult at all since she had not touched her CPF for anything her entire life.

Out of curiousity, I asked her how she planned to make the difference. Turns out she had invested in some insurance scheme that would also generate a sum at the end of 10 years to grow her retirement pot. I don't know what she specifically bought, but I'm sure there must be an insurance component within. So I asked her, what the coverage was for since she didn't need to protect anyone else upon her death? There was a bit of awful silence as the realisation sank in.

Never mind. At least, the money wasn't sitting in a bank account rotting away. Hopefully it's not a Lehman Brothers sob story all over again. On the other hand, she did make a reasonable decision to leave the bulk of her money in CPF as she didn't know what to do with it otherwise. At least that would still compound at 2.5 to 5%.

Interestingly, she does buy stocks. But she's the kind that dabble in trading by buying on rumours, analyst buy calls, and get a hearth-thumping fillip from 3 cents changes in stock prices. You can pretty much guess that she's really into those penny stocks. Risky. Guess that counts as another vice?

Retirement Income - Alternative Options

I thought about this over the rest of the weekend and wondered how that 4% yield could be achieved.  I came up with a couple of possibilities, constrained by the desire to keep a lower risk profile:

Dividend-Yielding Stocks.

Buy a number of dividend yielding stocks and live off their dividends. I suggested she examine several stocks like Vicom, SATS, SPH, HourGlass, Boustead, and complement these with a bunch of REITs. I figured the stocks would generate 3-5% while the REITS would generate 4.5-7%. The upside is that some of these stocks could appreciate in value. Of course, that also come with the downside that the reverse could also happen.

Perpetuals and Bonds.

Presently, there are a few publicly traded perpetuals and high-yield bonds on the SGX - e.g. Hyflux6%CPS10, GentingSP5.125%Perp and Olam6.75%b180129US$. At 5.125% to 6.75%, seems like a combination of these could be a viable option. The yield-to-maturity (YTM) would be a little lower given that these are currently trading at above par (e.g. Hyflux's perpetual is trading at $106.8 for $100 par value on 23 Jun 14). Can't see the downside other than the underlying company folding or becoming unprofitable and hence unable to pay the coupon. The payout is otherwise fixed and would not fluctuate.

Bonds ETF.

What about buying a whole market of bonds instead? Was checking out iShares J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Bond Index ETF ("IS ASIA BND 10S$D") and noted that it holds bonds weighted towards Corporate bonds, with some sprinkling of Government bonds of Asia Pacific countries. Looks like at least 70% are investment grade. The yield seems to be about 4-5%. I believe its Expense Ratio is 0.5%. Seems doable.

Bonds Unit Trust

I also explored Bonds Unit Trust that provide regular dividend payout. But none seems suitable for the desired profile. Either dividend payouts would be too low (<4%), or risks seem high. Did I miss something?

A Matter of Choice

What would you choose?  Are there alternatives?  I greatly welcome any views and insights.

14 June 2014

Maximising returns with minimal risks - for the ultra conservative investor

Most of us probably are guilty of unnecessary 'expenses' that could have been avoided with a little bit more education and interest.  And you don't have to avoid that cup of Starbucks coffee to do so!

Tax Avoidance


Not the illegal kind of course!  But one could easily avoid paying tons of tax by establishing a Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) account and maxing out the annual contribution of $12,750.  Contibutions to your SRS are tax deductible.  If you were at a tax bracket of 17% for instance, this translates into a tax avoidance of $2,167.50!  In addition, that $12,750 should be further invested to achieve higher returns. 

The catch: SRS cannot be withdrawn till after retirement age (62-65 years old), and has to be extracted over a period within 10 years thereafter, taxable at half the amount.  That means that if one had no other sources of income by then, withdrawal of $40,000 annually would be tax free since the first $20,000 of taxable income enjoys 0% tax.  This assumes the taxation system remains unchanged.

Caveat: My take on the subject of SRS is that it may not be meaningful to do so if your tax bracket is still very low.

More Tax Avoidance

If your spouse is earning less than $2,000 a year, you could contribute up to $7,000 to your spouse CPF-SA (Speical Account) which is then tax deductible for you!  That's a further $1,190 of tax avoidance at the 17% tax bracket - i.e. an immediate 17% yield!  Consider in addition that the $7,000 in your spouse's CPF-SA would be benefiting from 4% returns as well.  Of course, there is no guarantee the interest rate for CPF-SA would continue to be 4%, since officially it is now benchmarked against SGS 10-year bond + 1%.

The catch: CPF-SA is of course not withdrawable till after 55 years of age, subject to any balance left after the minimum required transfer to CPF-RA (Retirement Account).  Check out the CPF website for more information.

Risk-free Investments

Aside from low risk but rather hopeless options of putting our money into savings account (earning a pittance of a return) or fixed deposits (equally miserable returns), other options would be Singapore Government Securities (SGS) Bonds and Money Market Funds. 

SGS Bonds can be bought off secondary markets such as from Fundsupermart. The yield is in the region of 2-3% for 10-20 year maturity. Not bad, compared to 0.5% in savings account. These days, SGS Bonds are publicly traded on SGX.

Money Market Funds (MMF) on the other hand are unit trusts that invest in short-term (<1 year) maturity and probably yield about 1% right now, although it could well be 2-3% over the longer term.  MMF are however very fluid.  While it carries slightly more risk than savings account, the risks are relatively low given the short term maturities and AAA-rated holdings.  I view MMF as 'equivalent' to a savings account, but with a latency of 1-2 weeks when the money needs to be cashed out.  Such funds would include LionGlobal Money Market Fund, Philip Money Market Fund, and Pru Cash Fund.

There are various Singapore Corporate Bonds, including from government or statutory boards, which may well offer better yields than SGS Bonds.  Unfortunately, these are not easily accessible for the typical retail investor for now.  But recent news suggest that SGX is looking into opening up this market in the not so distant future.

There is a good video presentation from Mah Ching Cheng to explain this subject (a SIAS event): Investing in Bonds.

In Summary

For the ultra conservative investor therefore, the above would reap immediate benefits in maximising the little cash that we could put to better use, avoiding unnecessary wastage, and simple solutions to getting better returns, rather than leaving our money in the bank idling away.

We start off by working hard for our money.  It's time to make our money work harder for us.

Retirement:
Supplementary Retirement Scheme [IRAS]
Investing in Bonds [SIAS MyMoney investor education]
SRS & CPF Cash Top Up Schemes [Nexia Pulse]

02 June 2014

Golden Harvests for Golden Years

The weekend papers on 1 Jun 2014 carried a couple of interesting advertisements.  Thought it was interesting to compare and contrast each offering ...


Manulife

The advertisement from Manulife suggested 4 ways to fund a retirement income:
  • Insurance with Income Payout Facilities.  Provides a regular income stream during retirement.
  • Dividend-Paying Stocks and Unit Trusts.  Dividends are used as an additional source of passive income during retirement.
  • CPF Life.  Provides monthly payouts of $1,200 (less for women).  
  • Unlock Property Value. Renting out in full or in part, reverse mortgage or HDB Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS) so as to capitalise on our property.

Aggregate Asset Management

On the other page, an advertisement from Aggregate Asset Management featuring Teh Hooi Ling explained the Rule of 72.  It illustrated the returns via various means of investments:

  • Bonds/Unit Trusts @ 3 to 5% p.a. Over 24 years, $100,000 would have become $200,000.
  • Index Funds/ETF/Blue Chips @ 6 to 7% p.a. The same $100,000 would have become $400,000.
  • A Basket of Value Stocks @ 10 to 12% p.a.  $100,000 would have become $1,600,000.

The 2-3% spread from Unit Trusts compared to ETF probably accounted for the management fees of such actively managed funds compared to index funds.

Related:
CPF - A Lifeline for Retirement or Till Death Do Us Part

27 May 2014

Journey through the ages - is 20% good?

It has been a fascinating, and at times exciting, journey. Initially, I had only invested in insurance-based schemes. Be it whole-life endowment plans or investment-linked policies (ILP). Work, work, work was otherwise all I focused on. Making ends meet from the salary I earned and saving money into the bank were pretty much the game plan otherwise. Marriage, housing, post-graduate studies and kids pretty much took up everything else I had.

Had it not been for the early years buying into the various ILPs, I wouldn't have much of an investment to speak of. Interestingly, I had the fortune of having taken up ILPs in the era post Asian Financial Crisis and it had generated quite a tidy sum. It came in handy when I needed the money to complement my CPF to buy my first home.

Then I discovered Fundsupermart. A small sum in its cash fund gave me confidence to take the next step - i.e. to invest into various unit trusts funds. As I read more and gained a better understanding of the concept of diversification, stocks and bonds, the unit trust funds I invested into became more systematically managed.
Then I discovered the tax benefits of the Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS). Voila! Max'ed out my SRS, minimise the tax I have to pay, and invest the SRS into unit trust funds at Fundsupermart. It's all too easy!

At the depth of the Global Financial meltdown, I saw my unit trust funds sink miserably. And I mean miserably. But I stayed faithful to the diversification plan with the confidence that the market will generally recover in the long run.  It has not disappointed.

In 2009, I assessed that there were many opportunities to pick up stocks. I must say I had a confirmation bias when I saw a video interview with Warren Buffet where he suggested that he was on the look out for things to buy. So started my stock picking journey.

ROI

After 5 years investing into the stock market, I did an analysis recently to see how I've faired. Turned out, not bad. Not bad at all. Using Excel's XIRR function, the internal rate of return showed 20.6% over the 5 year period investing in stocks. The stock portfolio, both from valuation uptick and from cash additions to the investment fund, has grown in leaps and bounds, from zero to hundreds of thousands in that 5 years.

Significantly, as I analysed the individual stock's performance, it is also clear that the dividends have been significant. Soon, the dividends alone would generate $1,000 per month of income. Of late, as companies try to preserve their capital, several have started offering Scrip Dividends (also known as Dividend Reinvestment) options which I have opted to subscribe to, and thereby increasing the number of shares that I owned of those companies.  I'm doing so with the assessment that these stocks are not going the way of the dodo bird over the next 5-10 years.

In many cases, the dividend yields have gone way beyond 4% compared to the original cost of the shares as many of these companies have consistently raised their dividends year on year. It sure feels *shiok* to see a stock that cost $1,000 generating an annual dividend of $100 per year and growing. Must say though, that there aren't as many SGX companies that behave like that compared to US stocks on the NYSE. The later have many more companies with a long history and consistent track records. Unfortunately, that also comes along with the 30% withholding tax.

Happy investing!

Related:
Where Lies the Portal to Wealth?
Pattern of Behaviour - A review of 2013

13 May 2014

Positive cash flow without putting any cash at risk! Too good to be true?

Saw an online video clip on YouTube recently by this lady who was selling her concept of developing wealth. She was schooled in the art of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad".  I've no grouse with the general idea of "positive cash flow" though I guess some of the concepts may run contrary to accounting practices in the way assets and liabilities are normally tagged.

She gave an example of a Singapore property and asked the audience if they would invest in it.  Essentially it had a negative cash flow due to the high loan payments compared to the rental income.  The obvious answer was no.  But she postulated, what if she had a way to turn this into positive cash flow?  I was intrigued to say the least.

The concept?

Idea #1.  Secure an interest-only loan payment.  The argument being that since this is for the purpose of generating income from rental and not for capital appreciation, taking this approach helps to reduce the loan payment and hence shifts the cash flow equation to the positive.  Not bad.

Idea #2.  Obtain a capital refinancing.  She made it clear to differentiate between refinancing a loan (which I understood) versus capital refinancing (which I had no clue about).  It sort of work like this.  Suppose you could obtain a loan of 80% against a $1,000,000 property - i.e. $800,000.  So you had to put down $200,000 as the upfront down-payment. 5 years later, the value of the property has appreciated to $1,200,000.  Recall Idea #1?  So, the loan principal has remained at $1,000,000.  But since the value of the property has now appreciated to $1,200,000, the capital refinancing would offer a revised loan at 80% giving $1,000,000.  You would therefore have extracted the $200,000 you had put down earlier!  Of course, the loan repayment would have increased.  But she argued that the rental income would likely have similarly increased as well.  Amazing isn't it?  Over 5 years, you have effectively put no cash into the investment and would still generate a positive cash flow from the rental income!  I also want!

What's the catch?

Catch #1.  Notice how the assumption in Idea #2 contradicted Idea #1.  She said we should not invest for capital appreciation but to achieve positive cash flow.  But what was the assumption in Idea #2?  Capital appreciation!

Catch #2.  What happens if the value of the property drop?  The bank is going to come calling for a cash top up!  Do you have the cash reserves to respond when that happens?  Are you still cash flow positive? Companies can die when they don't manage their cash flow properly from month to month.  For the individual, it could mean bankruptcy and a miserable rest-of-the-life.

Catch #3.  Does the economy remain healthy always and you can be assured of the rental income?  More often than not, when things are getting bad, it just gets worse. The very scenario in Catch #2 is also likely to be accompanied by a poor economy. What happens?  Your rental would also go up in smoke.  Now the ability to service the loan has just been compounded by an amount equal to the lost rental income!  Double whammy!




Speaking of which, got a call from a friend (person A) recently, asking for the number of another guy I know (person B).  A was trying to get in touch with B over his investment.  Seems A had invested in some gold-related scheme with B.  I happened to know B had been scammed by his business partner (absconded!) and was desperately trying to get his life back.  B was now driving a taxi to make ends meet.  I guess friend A has to kiss his investment goodbye.  Sad.

02 June 2013

Consult your stock broker

Totally Useless Advice #1

Was watching an episode related to investment recently, and came across a most useless piece of information.  The question posed was on what stock to pick at this point in time (in the Singapore market).  The advise was to refer to a stock broker.  What crap! 





Totally Useless Advice #2

Then there was another question regarding generating income from stocks.  The reply was to buy blue chip stocks to get good dividend income stream.  Rubbish once again!

Totally Useless Advice #3

And here's another one: How should one go about building a retirement income.  The answer: buy annuities.  No prize for guessing the occupation of the lady giving this piece of advice.
Can we have a better show please!?  We're getting horrendous investment advice from TV.  Had a more positive impression from past episodes.  But this one really irritated the heck out of me. 

[Venting]


27 March 2013

Annuity Plans for Recurring Retirement Income




Annuity plans offered by various insurance companies:

http://www.income.com.sg/insurance/Annuity/index.asp
http://www.aia.com.sg/en/individuals/pro..._plan.html
http://www.aviva.com.sg/retirement/for-i...ement.html
http://www.axalife.com.sg/retirement/retire-happy

An alternative approach to provide a regular income stream during retirement.  This could be used to augment (a) payout from CPF Life, (b) dividend income stream from stocks, and (c) coupon payouts from bonds.

Acknowledgment: Information was sourced from a post at ValueBuddies.

04 July 2011

The Moneytree and its many branches

Since I strive to make it a point that my monthly expenses stay below my monthly take home pay, bonus is then an affair of choices.  What should I do with my bonus?  It seems the competing demands are a plenty:

1. Contribute to my spouse's CPF-SA account (up to $7,000) and benefit from income tax benefits and 4% returns.

2. Contribute to my spouse's CPF-MA account since it is below the threshold, and benefit from 4% returns.

3. Contribute to my kids' Fundsupermart accounts and build up their unit trust portfolio for their education funds.

4. Pay down my mortgage (2.6% loan interest) and reduce the monthly instalment payment to build up my CPF-OA (gaining 2.5% interest).

5. Contribute to my own unit trust portfolio or in my trading account to buy more good dividend paying stocks. 6-10% returns with associated higher risks.

6. Save up and keep in a Money Market Fund for vacation expenses.

7. Leave it the bank savings account, earning peanuts, but with ready cash-on-hand as part of my contingency funds.

The answer is likely a combination of above - probably 1, 3, 5, 6 and 7. 

It doesn't make immediate sense right now to do 4 since interest rates are still low. 

I guess I will not go for 2 either, unless I've maxed out my spouse's CPF-SA and there is no better place to make more than 4% returns.

Related:
Free "e-book": Achieving level one financial security for Singaporeans [ASSI]