28 July 2014

Can Insurance Policies Return Better Than 4%?


It's always great to have a weekend extended by a public holiday. It gave me time to update the records of all my insurance policies and do a bit of a review.

These policies include whole life, endowment, investment and unit trust linked policies. The policies vary in terms of payment terms and involved cash, CPF-OA and CPF-SA.  You can see that I pretty much bought about anything in my foolish younger days.

I discovered that out of 11 policies from 3 different insurance companies, only one is projected to exceed a return that is greater than 4%. Even for that one case, it barely crossed the 4% threshold with a marginal difference. One might even say, "statistically insignificant". And it remains a projection with some way to go before 'maturity'.

It's pretty apparent that the whole foray has been one long and massive failure. Might as well have fed the money into CPF-SA.

Of course, part of the payments went to the insurance coverage and I have in some sense benefited. I'm most grateful that I'm alive of course. But considering the sub-4% performance, it still leaves a bitter taste.

In all fairness, I do have to say that the insurance policies were a good start for me nonetheless.  At least I had these to start off with to begin the journey to financial independence.  It was only past my fourth decade that I started seriously learning about investment and hence discovering the many alternatives that could generate better than the miserly 4% returns.

Onward to better returns!

p/s: Have you analysed yours?

25 July 2014

Investing and Dieting - Same Rules, Different Games

My wife and I had the opportunity to do something on our own today and had a sumptuous lunch with a great view. We pretty much consumed our whole day's calorie intake from that one lunch. Guess it's time to hit the gym and swimming pool to make up for the overdose!

It got me into a train of thought about investing and dieting yet again.

My daily budget for food intake is akin to a monthly salary. They both set the opening budget to work within. Everything thereafter is about living within the budget, and/or increasing the budget to work with.

Consider this: My Basal Metabolic Rate is 1,950 kCal.  Given the longer term aim to lose 2 kg a month (~7,000 kCal), the daily aim is then to lose 500 kCal a day. So I have two choices: eat less, or exercise more.  I could either eat no more than 1,450 kCal a day, or exercise 500 kCal and eat up to 1,950 kCal. The answer, as always, is something in between. So, I've taken to exercising 300 kCal and eating up to 1,650 kCal each day.

This has a close parallel to investing.  My monthly salary is $X.  Given the longer term aim to achieve $1.8m portfolio to generate my retirement income upon retirement, the shorter term monthly aim is then to either put aside enough savings from my salary for investment (spend less), or to find other avenues to generate more income to work with (earn more).  The first case of spending less would mean controlling what I spend on - some frugal discipline is needed given all the competing demands. For the second case of earning more, that could be from salary raise and bonus, dividend income, or any other sources of income.

I need to keep my intake within the daily calorie count in order not to gain weight. In fact, as I want to lose weight at a certain rate, it means I need to experience a net deficit.

If I might distill the above thought process therefore, it boils down to:

1.  Establish the end goal - long term aim.
2.  Break that down into more manageable shorter term budget.
3.  Live within the budget.
4.  Grow alternatives to expand the budget.
5.  Stick to the plan.

Slow and steady as it goes, but surely and certainly the end goal will be met. Same rules, just different games.

Good health and great wealth.

Related:
Investing and Dieting - Wealth and Health

20 July 2014

A $29,000 Problem to Financial Freedom

Surrender or Wait for Death

Well, we did it. Or she did it rather. My wife decided to surrender her only whole life insurance policy. We concluded that there was really no value in her owning such a policy when there's really no need to have such a sum to protect either myself or the kids.


As a housewife, why is there still a need for her to own this insurance policy? No point waiting for "till death do us part for" the returns from this policy.

The insurance agent was nifty and processed it in due course. The cheque for $29,000+ came in within a week, and is now safely deposited.

A Matter of Choices

Next question, what to do with it? Memories of the squandered $million$ case that went down the tube came to mind. Of course, this is several magnitude less of a problem. A happy problem in fact.

- Leave it in the bank savings account - build up the emergency fund, low interest rate, but risk free?

- Contribute to her CPF Medisave account to bring it to the the limit, earn 4% returns at the same time, but locked in?

- Buy more dividend yielding stocks on SGX, accept the risks of volatility?

- Buy Unit Trust to diversify globally, accept the leakage from annual charges?

- Buy ETFs to diversift globally, accept the risk of poor liquidity?

What would you do? For now, my wife says, she wants to see the sum appear on her savings account first. Feels *shiok* first mah.

Either way, that's also a few hundred dollars (avoidance from not having to pay the monthly insurance) freed up to do other things with. Invest that sum too?

Related:
Whole Life Insurance - A Good Deal or a Dead Deal?

19 July 2014

A US Team of Dividend Growth/Value Stocks

Aside from investing in SGX stocks (My World Cup Team (of Dividend Value Stocks)), I also own a smaller portfolio in US stocks as part of my globally diversified investment portfolio. Other regions are held in the form of Exchange Traded Funds and Unit Trusts.

At the moment, my US team looks like this:

Goalkeeper:
  Berkshire Hathaway-B

Defense:
  Johnson & Johnson
  Proctor & Gamble
  Chevron
  Anheuser Busch

Midfield:
  Wells Fargo
  McDonalds
  Target
  Union Pacific

Forward:
  IBM 
  Philip Morris

Berkshire Hathaway is a steady goalkeeper that has proven its worth over the long history since its founding by Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger.

The defensive line of 4 is made up of various companies that are likely to float in good time or bad. Toiletries, consumer medical and household products are things that have high repeat value, regardless the market situation. Oil will always be needed, until alternatives start to make oil irrelevant. But I can't see that happening anytime soon. And beer, will continue to be guzzled, perhaps even more so when things aren't looking good.

The midfield line up is an interesting variety of a financial heavyweight, fast food, large scale retailer and nation-wide train system. Of these, perhaps the more risky one is Target as it continues to face difficulty with its troubled expansion into Canada struggling. The Canadians are really not too enthu' with them.

The forward line up of IBM and Philip Morris will take some time to pan out. It's hard for a smoker to cut a smoking habit. A rapidly growing emerging market will likely generate an increasingly higher demand for their products. Of course, there are many risks given that this is a really unhealthy business and will face regularity pressures with high taxation and domestic product alternatives. IBM ... hmm ... let's see how this IT behemoth transforms itself. It has pretty much given up everything that is a commodity - i.e. the hardware business.

Two interesting key attributes of most of the above companies: (a) many are holdings of Berkshire Hathaway, and (b) they are dividend growth champions! Ironically, Berkshire itself doesn't give out dividends. Warren Buffet has always said that his company can do a better job of capital allocation and it makes more sense for them to invest the money than to give out as dividends. Besides, US tax the dividend payouts. As a Singaporean investor, I would lose 30% from withholding tax for dividends that are paid out.

The first team with the above 11 players are doing well.  However, my bench isn't doing too well - i.e. Coach. My holding in Coach has dropped a third in value.


Coach has been suffering from competitive pressures from Kate Spade and Michael Kors. Its attempt to generate more sales via atfactory outlets has devalued its branding. But still, we see many ladies holding Coach products. The company's financials look good. Let's see if it survives the challenge from the new brands and turn things around over time.

It's an irony isn't it? The problem is the Coach. Muahahah!

G K Goh - More Insider Buying

I examined this company back in Jun 14 and made a small investment into this company.

I liked what I saw, particularly its holding in Boardroom, another SGX company that I had been tracking in view of its consistent high yield dividend.

Its small holding in euNetwork isn't doing as well though. The later is on the Catalist board.

Back then, I had highlighted the insider buying that was going on. Looks like GKG Investment Holdings Pte Ltd has continued with the insider buying spree, adding another 81,000 shares on 15 Jul 2014.

A positive sign? Evaluate and assess.

Related:
G K Goh

11 July 2014

Kids Education Revisited - Back to the Future

Kids education - it's such an important part of the early pangs for parents. I had previously shared about my own misadventures on this (Misadventures of the Education Savings Fund). I thought I might do a theoretic study of this and rewind the clock. Were I to start this journey from the birth of my child, how would it have looked like instead?

Below table illustrates the whole plan. Assuming birth in 1999, I would place $2,000 per year for the first 4 years. That gives me 8 blocks of $1,000 which I could invest into a diversified portfolio of unit trust in various regional markets. In particular, equity unit trusts covering (1) US, (2) Europe, (3) Asia Pacific ex-Japan, (4) Global Emerging Markets, (5) Singapore, (6) Asia Pacific Small Caps, as well as (7) Global Bonds and (8) Money Market Fund. That would have given a good diversification.

In subsequent years, I would then top up annually with $500. Basically, the 'ang pow' money. And then top this up with a monthly RSP of $200 per month. Assuming an annualised investment return (ROI) of 6.5%, we should have a tidy sum of well over $100,000 for the varsity funds, assuming $25,000 needed per year for 4-years at a local university.  Rebalance the unit trusts with equal amount in each.

Below profile is based my girl's. Guys would have a further two years to work with. Even if on the eve of year 19, the market were to collapse by (no more than) 30%, the portfolio would still suffice.

Age Year Ad-hoc  RSP (mthly)  ROI Extracted  Portfolio
1 1999  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $    4,400
2 2000  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $    9,086
3 2001  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $  14,077
4 2002  $2,000  $ 200 6.5%  $  19,392
5 2003  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  23,552
6 2004  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  27,983
7 2005  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  32,702
8 2006  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  37,727
9 2007  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  43,080
10 2008  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  48,780
11 2009  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  54,851
12 2010  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  61,316
13 2011  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  68,201
14 2012  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  75,534
15 2013  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  83,344
16 2014  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  91,662
17 2015  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $100,520
18 2016  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $109,953
19 2017  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  25,000  $  95,000
20 2018  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  25,000  $  79,075
21 2019  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  25,000  $  62,115
22 2020  $   500  $ 200 6.5%  $  20,000  $  49,053

I guess one adjustment to the above plan would be to keep the contributions from year 16 onwards in bonds and money market funds to mitigate the risk further. And with each passing year thereafter, to shift the contributions to cash-only in preparation for the annual draw down for the 4 years.

If the market does well, there would still be a tidy balance for my little one to get started on her journey to retirement as well.

09 July 2014

5 Wishes for X'mas 2014

X'mas is coming. It's always coming what, right? At worst, it's 364 days away. Darned good excuse either way to make a wish list. So here's my greedy list ... (never know if it might come true!)

Chaos and order begin with the flutter of a butterfly.

1. Give me real ETFs!

Enough of those exotic synthetics already. Then we can have less problems about the average investor not being allowed to invest in ETFs. Let's have real index ETFs and give investor the real means to diversify across market regions with real stocks backing the ETFs. Generate the liquidity as well please. Please?

2. Can I buy just 15 shares of Jardine Matheson Holdings?

It's really a pain given that it's at a price of US$59.84/share in lots of 400 shares. That's quite a fortune at one go. Of course there is the means to buy small lots on the Unit Share board on POEMS. But it doesn't have the same liquidity wor. The spread is even worse.

3. Repeat my order if not transacted.

How hard is it to provide such a feature? Can I have the function on the basic POEMS application for a validity period for my buy/sell orders if it is not transacted within the day? It's a pain to submit a fresh order each day until it happens. That's a lot of mouse clicks you know?

4. To hell with the penny stocks! 

Can we get rid of them for gawd sake? I really hate people selling 1,000 shares at $0.10 when I'm trying to buy 50,000 shares of it. That's just $100. Come on! You're killing me with the sales charges. Enough already. Creep.

5. Bonds galore! 

Why can't those 5%, 6%, 7% coupon paying bonds be made available to retail investors? At $250,000 a pop, they're completely out of reach for most. Why the exclusivity when bonds could really lower the risk profile of an investor's portfolio? Imagine all those education and retirement portfolios aiming to get a reasonably safe yield or 4% extraction for retirement?

Japan Foods - Ajisen Discount

Bought Japan Foods a few days back after having watched this stock for some time. Guess I'm still very much in a Japan mood after visiting the land of the rising sun on a holiday recently. Is this a bias effect?


The company appears to be in a growth phase with reasonably good margins. Scale likely matters in such a business. It appears to be expanding with some initial footprints in various Asia-Pacific countries. Its latest annual report hinted at likely expansion of its overseas outlets.

Financials appear reasonable, though not necessarily with much margin of safety at the moment. Numbers are suggestive of its growth. DPS and EPS has continued to rise year on year after an initial dip, with dividend standing at 2.8%, and more coming. Total dividend payout for 2014 is expected to be 2.6 cents in total, representing a total of 53% of net profit. The Board intends to recommend dividends of at least 40% of the Group's consolidated net profits, an increase from its current 35% level. With that, it has maintained a steady year-on-year increase in its dividends paid out.

Interestingly, the founder, Takahashi Kenichi, who is still driving the company was a mechanical engineer.  And he continues to hold the majority stake of almost 66% in the company. His pay for FY2014 was $716,000, of which 64% was bonuses.



Ratios & Other data
ROA (%)21.4810.1513.8620.5720.14
ROE (%)40.1616.0819.6028.1826.85
DPS (SGD)0.00330.00450.00660.01270.0073
EPS (SGD)0.02880.01500.02150.03700.0421

Peer Comparison Ø

Industry PeerROA(%)ROE(%)P/EP/BVEPSDPSDiv Yield(%)
Japan Foods Holding Ltd18.4324.1814.713.660.04210.00732.80
ABR Holdings Limited5.196.8018.071.600.04080.02503.29
Neo Group Ltd16.6635.4521.166.610.04440.02672.84
Sakae Holdings Ltd4.578.5914.301.490.03840.02003.64
Soup Restaurant Group Limited13.3318.14145.574.65-0.0075-

[Source: POEMS, dated 9 Jul 2014]






From the peer comparison, Japan Foods stands up well in terms of its ROA and ROE.  Its P/E is at a more reasonable level compared to the rest.  In terms of P/BV, it appears to be in the same league as Neo Group and Soup Restaurant, commanding a premium.

What came as an unexpected added surprise was this:


Ownership of the shares came with an Ajisen Family Card that offers various discounts at their restaurants (largely at 10%), though only valid for a year. Cool, nonetheless! And I thought Soup Restaurant was the only one that did this (Soup Restaurant - Slurping with a Discount).

I'm not too impressed with Ajisen Ramen itself though. Have tasted better. Food tends to be too oily. Fruit Paradise is interesting. Its outlet at VivoCity used to be packed. It seems a lot quieter these days though. Have not had the opportunity to try its other bands.

Disclaimer: This is not a call to buy or sell. Make your own assessment before investing.

03 July 2014

Investing and Dieting - Wealth and Health

The whole point of planning for a retirement income is to eventually achieve financial independence to retire on right? That means there is an inherent assumption that one gets to actually retire and live life to enjoy for "as long as you shall live", as my insurance agent might say. So one has to figure out what it takes to be healthy to do so.

Eat Less, Exercise More

Managing one's weight then goes a long way to achieving this goal. "Eat less, exercise more", or so goes conventional wisdom. But where's the joy if I love to eat in the first place? Easier said than done it seems.

Actually, my experience over the past half a year suggests that it really isn't that tough. There are really two important rules to remember to get started:

Rule #1.  Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR). This is the daily calorie (kCal) intake that one needs to maintain the weight. There are several formulas. But no worries, just pick one and go with it. They are about the same anyway - a function of height, weight, age and sex. Simply said, if I eat more than the BMR level, I would gain weight. Conversely, eat less, and I lose weight. Simple.

Rule #2.  7000 calories = 2 pounds (or just under 1 kg). Therefore, if I maintain a net deficit vide Rule #1 over a period of time, I would lose almost 1 kg per 7000 calories of deficit. At a steady rate of 350 calories deficit a day, I would lose about 1 kg each fortnight.

Spend Less, Invest More

If you think about this, the whole concept isn't really that much different from investment - i.e. live within one's means. Overspend, and I end up in debt. Spend less, and there is savings. The Basal Metabolic Rate is similar to the idea of balancing our revenue and expenses.

And if I were to put aside a certain sum regularly, I would build up a healthy level of savings. Attempting to lose 350 calories a day to create about 2 kg weight loss a month is equivalent to putting aside a regular sum of savings into investments to build up a healthy portfolio.

Health is Wealth

It all goes together. I've shed 10 kg over the past 5 months. Join me?

Go go go!

30 June 2014

Whole Life Insurance - a good deal or a dead deal?

My wife has a whole life insurance policy for a sum assured of $35,000 for which she has been paying $613.80 a year.  She started this policy as a teenager at a very young age of 18 and the policy has been in force for the past 29 years.

According to the latest projection from the insurer (as checked from its online portal), the projected surrender value at age 65 is $85,099. This includes both the guaranteed and non-guaranteed components.

I worked through the maths and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) worked out to be 3.97%.

Its cash value, if the policy was surrendered now, is estimated to be $29,810. Suppose she cashed out this sum and invest at a 6.5% return, and she continued to contribute the annual sum $613.80 to this investment, she could achieve an IRR at age 65 of 4.9% for a sum of $112,503.

At 5% returns, the IRR would be 4.12%, $89,009.
At 6% returns, the IRR would be 4.64%, $104,058.
At 7% returns, the IRR would be 5.15%, $121,624.
At 8% returns, the IRR would be 5.65%, $142,108.
At 9% returns, the IRR would be 6.15%, $165,968.
At 10% returns, the IRR would be 6.63%, $193,730.

My assessment is that 6% to 9% investment return is in fact achievable with a well considered dividend-yielding value investment in SGX shares. Not unlike my fantasy soccer team.

The possibility of generating $104,058 to $165,968 by the time she is age 65, and yielding dividends of 4% would imply a passive income in the range of $4,162 to $6,639 per year.  That's $347 to $553 per month.

The current cash value at $29,810 is close to the sum assured of $35,000. She is a housewife and there is really nothing that she needs to protect with this sum of money.

Worth considering?

28 June 2014

Breadtalk revisited - A RamenPlay?

There was an occasion when I needed to go to Velocity at Novena. I flagged down a cab and promptly fell asleep. Some time later, I woke up and found myself at Vivocity. Not quite where I wanted to be. Need to be careful with places like this. Kind of recalled another time when I was took a cab to Causeway Point at Woodlands. I was nearly sent across the Causeway! Yesterday, I had an errand to run and went to Velocity once again. This time, I took the train instead.

Having just returned from a trip to Japan recently, I had this continued craving for Japanese food. So it was great to discover a RamenPlay outlet there. I decided to give it a go.


I had previously reviewed Breadtalk - A Case of Over-expanded Yeast? and mentioned that I wasn't too impressed with its RamenPlay chain. Boy was I wrong. It was lunch time and the store was crowded. The food wasn't bad either. Yummy. Location was good and clearly attracted the working class from the neighborhood. I wonder if all its stores are doing as well?


I had originally bought some shares in BreadTalk in 2012 at $0.57. And again when it went down to $0.53. Shortly after, in 2013, it went up to $0.805. I decided to sell off the equivalent amount that I had invested and held onto the balance. Amazingly, it continued to trend upwards, and more recently, reached $1.45. Given that its PE ratio had reached 29x, I decided it was time to exercise caution and trimmed my holding. It's now at $1.32.

ROA (%) 7.29 5.94 5.04 4.38 3.91
ROE (%) 19.60 17.44 15.82 14.95 15.41
DPS (SGD) 0.0083 0.0100 0.0100 0.0080 0.0180
EPS (SGD) 0.0394 0.0399 0.0411 0.0425 0.0482
[Source: POEMS, dated 28 Jun 2014]

Breadtalk remains an interesting prospect for me. Although its PE ratio had improved to 27x, it's still too high for my liking. It appears highly leveraged at ~180% of debt. Can it go all the way down to $0.73? I'll maintain watch on this stock. I like Breadtalk. Munch munch.

Disclaimer: This is not a call to buy or sell. Do make your own assessment and decide for yourself. I am not a financial advisor. I have sold down but continue to hold some shares in Breadtalk. 

27 June 2014

DIY Insurance - Buy Term and Invest the Rest

An often said advice about investing for retirement is to simply "buy term and invest the rest", rather than buying lots of endowments, insurance-linked policies and what not. The idea is to buy term insurance for protection, and invest the rest for retirement income (Bahamas anyone? Or Onsen in Hokkaido?). I do agree with this notion, provided that one is prepared to gain some appreciation about investment first. Else, one may in fact be better off going with those insurance based policies to fund protection and retirement.


Doing It Yourself

There is a portal recently started by Providend (Christopher Tan) for DIY Insurance. It offers price comparisons of insurance plans from various insurance companies. Pretty nifty. Although, the big ones like Prudential and AI are clearly absent.

I gave it a go and tried two profiles to examine how much the term insurance would cost.

20 Year Old

For a person at age 20, male, non-smoker. for a sum assured of $200,000 for death and total permanent disability, the annual premiums from various companies like AXA, NTUC Income and Tokio Marine were in the range of $294 to $315.

That seems doable for a young adult with a reasonable starting salary. For a fresh graduate or diploma holder (which is about 40-60% of each cohort), that would probably represent 10-15% of his basic salary.

Why would a young, presumably single person, need to buy such insurance? Well, it would be to provide a level of protection for one's dependents. Who might these dependents be? Could be parents, wife, and children. But more importantly, I feel that it is important to secure and have such a protection in place while one is still healthy and insurable - i.e. there are no exclusions or loading to the cost of insurance due to any pre-existing illness.

The challenge is, would a young person at this tender starting stage of his career, withstand the idea that 10% of his salary goes into an insurance for which there are no returns to be expected? The only return is only when one 'kaputs' - hits the jackpot to for early entry to the Pearly Gates! Touch wood. But this is insurance in the truest sense. Dealing with the unexpected.

45 Year Old

For a person at age 45, male, non-smoker, for a sum insured of $200,000 for death and total permanent disability, the annual premiums from various companies like AXA, Aviva, NTUC Income, Manulife and Tokio Marine were in the range of $728 to $916.

As one reaches this age, it would probably become more apparent why such a form of insurance is indeed desirable. There is now family to seriously worry about. Probably a few kids and schooling. Unfortunately, it is just as likely that by this age, one would be facing various illnesses and other complications - hypertension, diabetes, prior surgery, slip disc, etc.

From the above example, a $800,000 protection would amount to under $4,000 of annual premiums. As it is, I am paying an average of $2,000 a month on average, to achieve the equivalent protection, with investment components projected to achieve a return of $750,000 by age 62. That's $24,000 per year!

Regrets and Realisation

I would have been better of paying the $4,000 in annual premiums for the term life insurance coverage of $800,000 and take the remaining $20,000 to invest. As it is, I've been achieving an internal rate of return of 20% for the last few years of investment. Realistically though, I am only expecting 6.5% over the longer term. Regardless, I do believe that I would have generated a far better rate of return than what I'm actually getting now from the endowment and ILP insurance plans.

Had I understood this better when I was young, the premium would only have been even lower, at $1,200 a year, for the term life insurance coverage of $800,000. Wow! Missed opportunities. Quite an opportunity cost.

Over time, as one's investment grows, the need for term insurance actually will taper down since the investment component will make up the shortfall. As the kids come of age and starts working, one only need to protect the spouse. And when the whole investment portfolio has reached the point of financial independence, there is no longer a need for any term insurance coverage even.

With that, my take is that I should have bought term insurances with different timelines. If I could wind back the clock, this is what I would have done:

Age 24 - started work - buy $200,000 term for 30 years (ending age 54)
Age 27 - married - buy another $200,000 term for 30 years (ending age 57)
Age 30 - 1st child (boy) born - buy another $200,000 term for 25 years (ending age 55)
Age 32 - 2nd child (girl) born - buy another $200,000 term for 23 years (ending age 55; girl doesn't need to serve NS, so it's 2 years less)

Amount may have to be more, depending on the lifestyle to maintain. But the idea is to provide enough coverage with each additional dependent, and to cover the kids only until they start working. They ought to be making a living and contribute to the family right?

It would be really silly for a person to hold a term insurance when one is no longer working. After all, the protection is to deal with loss of income isn't it?

And as one ages and builds up an investment portfolio, the term insurance is only to make up for the shortfall to achieve financial independence for the spouse. The math is really simple, though a spreadsheet would certainly be a big help.

In Conclusion

Buy term, and invest the rest!

And oh yes, maintain a hospitalisation/medical insurance! Looking forward to clarity on the enhancements to the CPF Medishield scheme.

Caveat: The figures are illustrative and may differ depending on individual conditions.

p/s: I am not an insurance agent nor a financial advisor. This is purely my personal opinion and hindsight views for my personal and family's considerations.

23 June 2014

My World Cup Team (of Dividend Value Stocks)

Warren Buffet in several of his talks cited a hypothetical situation for the audience to consider. If you only have a ticket on which you can only punch 10 holes, and each of these holes represent one stock you could invest in, and you can never change your mind thereafter for the rest of your life, what would you choose?

[You can find some of these videos of the talks on YouTube.]

Well, it's the World Cup season right now, so in the spirit of this global event taking place in Brazil, I shall extend that to a fantasy soccer team of 11 first team players. What would my first 11 be for a team of largely dividend-yielding samba stocks?  

I am going with a conservative and defensive oriented 4-4-2 formation.

Goalkeeper

There can only be one goalkeeper. This guy has to ensure that the opponents would not score and is the last man. For this, I would go with (1) OCBC. A big strong and friendly bank to hold the last line.

Defenders

For my defenders, I'm going with the two things that are the cause of  lots of heartburn - property and cars. The main reasons for our high headline inflation. Defensive stocks with high yields.

For property, I'm going with a couple of REITS, namely, (2) Capita Commercial Trust, (3) Capita Retail China Trust and (4) Mapletree Industrial Trust.  So that gives me 3 REITs covering commercial, retail and industrial properties. 

To round off the fourth player, I would go with (5) Vicom, a proxy play for car ownership.

Midfielders

Midfielders need to control the play. They have to create opportunities for offensives, and at times have to roll back to the defensive. For this, I would go with (6) Boustead, (7) Hour Glass, (8) Kingsmen Creative and (9) SATS.

Strikers

For the offensive play, I am looking for potential value-growth players that may not be as yet high yielding but have the potential to go far. For this, I pick (10) Global Logistic Properties and (11) Yangzijiang. Exposure to China, Japan and interestingly Brazil. 


It's pretty much a 80-20 rule. So that rounds up my first 11. What's yours?

[Disclaimer: I hold all the above stocks. But this is not a recommendation to buy any of these. Do make your own assessment before investing, always.]

Retiring single and on $2,000 per month


The Case

One of my sister is only a fistful of years away from retirement. Her lifestyle is generally a frugal (if not miserly!) one. She has no mobile phone, no cable TV, no aircon, no car (in fact, no license!). Single and hence no kids either. Zilch. Simple lifestyle, doesn't cost much. A Mustachio lifestyle!

She lives in a HDB flat that has been fully paid for. My mother has in fact set aside a sum of money that will pay for all the utilities (water and electricity) for at least another 20 years. Maybe less if the price of utilities inflate.

She has some 'vice' though. She likes to travel. Occasionally, she also seems to splurge quite a bit on geomancy ornaments and temple offerings. Hobby and beliefs.

Retirement Income - The Current Situation

She said she expects to receive about $800 per month from CPF Life. I figured she would probably survive on under $2,000 a month. With $800 already coming from CPF Life, that's a shortfall of only $1,200. That doesn't seem difficult. I figured if she could invest a sum of $360,000 at a 4% yield, she would have a perpetual income to meet that gap. Didn't seem difficult at all since she had not touched her CPF for anything her entire life.

Out of curiousity, I asked her how she planned to make the difference. Turns out she had invested in some insurance scheme that would also generate a sum at the end of 10 years to grow her retirement pot. I don't know what she specifically bought, but I'm sure there must be an insurance component within. So I asked her, what the coverage was for since she didn't need to protect anyone else upon her death? There was a bit of awful silence as the realisation sank in.

Never mind. At least, the money wasn't sitting in a bank account rotting away. Hopefully it's not a Lehman Brothers sob story all over again. On the other hand, she did make a reasonable decision to leave the bulk of her money in CPF as she didn't know what to do with it otherwise. At least that would still compound at 2.5 to 5%.

Interestingly, she does buy stocks. But she's the kind that dabble in trading by buying on rumours, analyst buy calls, and get a hearth-thumping fillip from 3 cents changes in stock prices. You can pretty much guess that she's really into those penny stocks. Risky. Guess that counts as another vice?

Retirement Income - Alternative Options

I thought about this over the rest of the weekend and wondered how that 4% yield could be achieved.  I came up with a couple of possibilities, constrained by the desire to keep a lower risk profile:

Dividend-Yielding Stocks.

Buy a number of dividend yielding stocks and live off their dividends. I suggested she examine several stocks like Vicom, SATS, SPH, HourGlass, Boustead, and complement these with a bunch of REITs. I figured the stocks would generate 3-5% while the REITS would generate 4.5-7%. The upside is that some of these stocks could appreciate in value. Of course, that also come with the downside that the reverse could also happen.

Perpetuals and Bonds.

Presently, there are a few publicly traded perpetuals and high-yield bonds on the SGX - e.g. Hyflux6%CPS10, GentingSP5.125%Perp and Olam6.75%b180129US$. At 5.125% to 6.75%, seems like a combination of these could be a viable option. The yield-to-maturity (YTM) would be a little lower given that these are currently trading at above par (e.g. Hyflux's perpetual is trading at $106.8 for $100 par value on 23 Jun 14). Can't see the downside other than the underlying company folding or becoming unprofitable and hence unable to pay the coupon. The payout is otherwise fixed and would not fluctuate.

Bonds ETF.

What about buying a whole market of bonds instead? Was checking out iShares J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Bond Index ETF ("IS ASIA BND 10S$D") and noted that it holds bonds weighted towards Corporate bonds, with some sprinkling of Government bonds of Asia Pacific countries. Looks like at least 70% are investment grade. The yield seems to be about 4-5%. I believe its Expense Ratio is 0.5%. Seems doable.

Bonds Unit Trust

I also explored Bonds Unit Trust that provide regular dividend payout. But none seems suitable for the desired profile. Either dividend payouts would be too low (<4%), or risks seem high. Did I miss something?

A Matter of Choice

What would you choose?  Are there alternatives?  I greatly welcome any views and insights.

Union Pacific - Choo Choo Train, Ran Away

[Source: Union Pacific]

When Berkshire Hathaway swallowed up BNSF Railway, it also disposed all its shares in Union Pacific that it had previously held. The reason for doing so didn't seem to be a case of negative views on Union Pacific, but rather, to avoid complications over anti-monopolistic concerns from regulatory bodies arising from Berkshire owning two big railway companies. The rail business seem to be experiencing a boom of late.

Can't buy BNSF, but Union Pacific is certainly available. So I looked at its financials.

Its debt levels seems low at the 40-50% bracket, compared to most US companies.

Dividend yield isn't yet great at below 2% with a payout ratio of 32.35%. But its DPS has been growing steadily year on year. In fact, its DPS has more than doubled over the last 5 years. In addition, its DPS has remained significantly below its EPS each year. Looks like it has a lot of room to continue on this trajectory of DPS growth.

Margins look great with gross margin at 73.47% and net profit margin at 20.25%. Which suggests that this is a very profitable business. PE ratio may be a bit on the high side though.

My previous impression was that the rail business is a capital intensive business. Seems like that doesn't detract from its profitability. I was probably influenced by the situation faced by our very own SMRT. After years of being seen as a great defensive dividend stock, all it took was one wonderful massive train breakdown incident and voila, end of party. It went south rapidly and stayed that way for much of recent years.

Rails are sticky business. It's difficult for new entrants to come in. One has to lay lots of line to create the network and invest in a lot of assets (trains, switching systems) to get going. I don't think there will be any new competition anytime soon in the US. For a large country like the US, rails make more sense than airlines and shipping lines to move large volumes of goods around. Airlines can move stuff fast, but they are notoriously difficult to make the margins and can't carry much. Ships need a lot of upkeeping and fuel, and can't reach land-locked areas. Rails appear to have that significant niche.

Ratios & Other data
ROA (%) 4.62 6.52 7.47 8.55 9.06
ROE (%) 11.72 16.09 18.12 20.51 21.35
DPS (USD) 0.5400 0.6550 0.9650 1.2450 1.4300
EPS (USD) 1.8683 2.7640 3.3606 4.1375 4.7102
[Source: POEMS, as at 12 Jun 2014.]

Looks like a great buy right? So I did. A couple of days later, I discovered to my horror that the value of the shares I had bought had dropped to half the price I paid! Holly crap. What happened? 

A couple of frantic checks later, I realised that it had undergone a 2-for-1 split, effective the day I bought the shares. Such coincidence! I hadn't thought to check if there were any news on such things then. A couple of frantic e-mails with the online broker, it was subsequently ascertained that I had indeed been credited with the split shares. So it was all good in the end. I had not stupidly paid double the value for my Union Pacific shares. Phew. Bodoh bodoh.

Lesson learnt: Check for news of stock split, merge and dividend ex-dates before diving into a buy.

Choo choo! She'll be coming round the mountain when she comes ...

Related:

14 June 2014

Investopedia, the Secret Millionaires Club and MyMoney

Many blogs on the subject of Personal Finance and Investment provide wonderful introductory explanations of these topics.  Investopedia is probably the most comprehensive, the ultimate Wiki for the investment peons.

I just came across another website which does a decent job of extending the educational materials further.  You may want to give it a go: Orcam Group Educational Resources.

For a kids friendly version, you may want to try the Secret Millionaires Club for a cartoon web series hosted by Warren Buffet.  Warren shares a piece of wisdom in each episode.  Guess he gave up on the adults and decided to start working on the kids instead!

For Singaporeans, the best available source is probably the serious of talks organised by SIAS MyMoney series to educate Singaporean investors:

Happy reading.




Related:
Investopedia
Orcam Group Educational Resources [Orcam Group]
Secret Millionaires Club
MyMoney [SIAS]