Using Leverage for REIT Investment

So here's a play I came across, mentioned by a number of people:

• Worked for a few years, saved some money. Let's say $100,000.
• Take that $100,000, borrow some (leverage), say at an interest rate of 4%.
• Let's assume $100,000 + $100,000, giving a total capital of $200,000.
• Put everything in REITs, yielding say 6% annually - i.e. $12,000.
• Pay $4,000 in interest. And still, make $8,000.
• That's an 8% yield over a starting capital of $100,000!

Sounds good right? The numbers seem credible under such a low interest rate environment.

Let's play out this scenario ...

There is an economic downturn resulting in a drop in the valuation of REITs. The 6% yield may be there, but it is now against a lower valuation.  So suppose the value of the REITs drops 30%.  The $200,000 worth of REITs (at cost) is now worth only $140,000. At a 6% yield, that now generates $8,400. Paying off the $8,000 interest, there is still a balance of $400.  The achieved yield has dropped to 0.4%.  Still ok.

In the following year, the REIT market continues to tank by another 20%.  The $140,000 of REITs is now worth only $112,000. At a 6% yield, that gives $6,720. Paying off the $8,000 loan (that never goes down!), you are now making a loss of $1,280. The achieved yield has dropped to -1.28%. Not so ok, but probably still bearable.

And then the REIT gets taken private, giving a cash value back of $150,000. What happens now? After paying off the interests ($4,000) and the loan capital ($100,000), you're left with $46,000. Poorer than when you started.

That's now a loss of 54% of the starting capital. Can you deal with that?

Leverage, it works both ways.

On good days, there is money to be made. But all it takes is ONE bad day to wipe out everything.

I think there is money to be made with this, but the downside has to be understood.